While the weather in the Louisville region has been somewhat unsettled over the past week, meteorologist have quelled fears early autumn showers could cause havoc.
Sunny skies are expected this weekend, which should give the track at Churchill Downs plenty of time to dry up after the rain that fell during the week, meaning the Kentucky Derby could have a fast track for the first time since 2016.
“The weather models are pretty consistent,” Ben Pine, a meteorologist with Louisville-based ABC affiliate WHAS-TV said earlier this week.
“It looks about as good as it can get for September—lower 80s for highs, low humidity, sunshine, blue skies—chamber of commerce weather.
“We got a front moving through early on Friday, and it leaves behind really nice weather. So we’re pretty confident that it’s just going to be beautiful.”
The Weather Channel forecasts the weather to be partly cloudy but with no chance of rain and temperatures between a low of 60 degrees and a high of 82.
AccuWeather, meanwhile, has an even rosier forecast. The weather service expects the weather to be mostly sunny, with temperatures between a low of 61 degrees and a high of 83.
Both services estimate the chances of rain to be between five and 10 percent.
Barclay Tagg, the trainer of bookmakers’ favorite “Tiz The Law,” will be among those hoping rain stays as far away as possible from the Louisville area on Saturday.
“Tiz The Law” arrives at the Kentucky Derby as a 3/5 favorite on the back of six wins in seven starts, headlined by a triumph in the Belmont Stakes in June.
Significantly, however, the only blot in an otherwise immaculate book came in November last year on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs.
“Tiz The Law” has swiftly overcome the disappointment with four straight wins in the intervening nine months, but all those successes have come on fast tracks and a sloppy track could complicate his quest to win a second Triple Crown race in as many attempts.
Conversely, several of the remaining 17 participants have impressed on muddy tracks. “Finnick The Fierce” finished in second place ahead of “Tiz The Law” at the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, but arrives into Kentucky Derby as a 50/1 outsider, the same odds as “Necker Island”, who won an allowance race by a nose at the same rainy meeting at the end of November but hasn’t tasted success in his last seven starts.
Fellow 50/1 long shots “Attachment Rate” and “Winning Impression” will also be among those hoping for a rogue storm to gather over Churchill Downs on Saturday after both registered wins on sloppy tracks.
