Ultimately, the “right” way doesn’t exist. If you wind up with a good player who avoids the trainer’s table, whether you got him in the first round or the eighth round, you’re going to look smart. That’s impossible to predict, but there are ways to mitigate risk and opportunity cost while ultimately strengthening your team, even if that doesn’t necessarily mean getting the best RBs. The key is being able to adapt during your draft based on who’s available and what the other owners in your league are doing.
Many owners base their strategy on carefully defined rankings tiers, and while that can also be a mistake and lead to overdrafting, it never hurts to have a sense of players to target and when you should target them.
2017 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
2017 Fantasy Football Tiers: Running backs to target in the first and second rounds
Heading into this season, it seems clear that David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott stand above the rest of the RBs – and, really, the rest of the league – when it comes to fantasy options. (Update: Well, not anymore after Elliott’s six-game suspension). Debate the order all you want, but chances are these three two will go first in most drafts. It’s fair to say they’re in Tier 1 by themselves, but they’re not the only first-round candidates.
- David Johnson, Cardinals 2. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers3. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
There will likely be several wide receivers that come off the board after Johnson, Bell and Elliott, but several of our Tier-2 backs could join them in the first round. Quite frankly, there isn’t much difference between these nine guys. It might make you feel better to draft an “up-and-comer” like Jordan Howard over one of last year’s biggest disappointments, Todd Gurley, but would it really shock anyone if Gurley had a better season? Lamar Miller, another of last year’s disappointments, can also be had at a slight discount over, say, Melvin Gordon, who was a huge bust just two years ago.
All of these guys can be legit RB1s, so there’s nothing wrong with taking any in the first two rounds, but there’s also nothing wrong with passing on this group entirely and waiting even longer for your first RB. If these guys start falling to the third round (or further), the value might be too good to pass up.
3. LeSean McCoy, Bills 4. Jordan Howard, Bears 5. Jay Ajayi, Dolphins 6. Melvin Gordon, Chargers 7. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars 8. Devonta Freeman, Falcons 9. Lamar Miller, Texans 10. Todd Gurley, Rams 11. DeMarco Murray, Titans
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2017 fantasy football cheat sheet
2017 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings: Tier 3 (Now featuring Ezekiel Elliott)
The third and fourth rounds of fantasy drafts are sort of a no-man’s land for RBs (unless someone falls). Anyone you really feel good about is probably already gone, and it still seems too early for the Tier-3 guys. Of course, it’s too early for a quarterback or tight end, too, and there aren’t that many wide receivers worth drafting here either. Thus, there will be plenty of RBs taken in these rounds, whether you like it or not.
There are question marks for most in this group, but assuming they’re starting in Week 1, they all have the makings of two-down backs who could/should get goal-line carries. Even that outlook isn’t a lock for all of them, but you’re going to have to take a chance at RB at some point, and at least we know these guys are talented and/or in good situations. You’re probably not going to feel great with one of these guys as your RB1, but we know at least a couple from this group will have big years.
Truthfully, it’s probably better to have one of these guys as an RB2, so if you’re targeting one of them, you should probably target one of the top 12 earlier in your draft. Actively seeking out two of these guys is a bit of a risky strategy. If you’re going to wait until the third or fourth round to draft your first RB, you might as well wait another couple rounds to draft another. Again, if someone falls, then by all means take advantage, but there’s a lot of risk in this group. Don’t think just because someone like Ingram is the “last guy left” in this tier that you have to reach for him.
Of course, the elephant in this room is Elliott, who is slated to miss the first six games (seven weeks) of the season. That’s a lot of time to waste a roster spot, but Elliott might very well be the best fantasy running back when active. If you draft him around the fourth or fifth round, you probably have to make a point of getting Darren McFadden a couple rounds later (and maybe even Alfred Morris a few rounds after that). It’s a big investment, but one that could pay off if you’re able to handle the first seven weeks of the season.
- Carlos Hyde, 49ers 13. Dalvin Cook, Vikings 14. Isaiah Crowell, Browns 15. C.J. Anderson, Broncos 16. LeGarrette Blount, Eagles 17. Marshawn Lynch, Raiders 18. Ty Montgomery, Packers 19. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys 20. Kareem Hunt, Chiefs 21. Bilal Powell, Jets 22. Mike Gillislee, Patriots 23. Mark Ingram, Saints
SLEEPERS: 5 QBs | 14 RBs | 8 TEs | 11 WRs | 5 D/STs | One from each team
2017 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: “Zero-RB”
The whole “Zero-RB” strategy doesn’t have an exact definition, but the basic idea is you wait much longer than usual to draft your first running back. Does that mean wait until the sixth round? The 10th round? Somewhere in between? It’s really whatever you want it to be, and the backs in Tiers 4 and 5 are probably who you will wind up with as your RB1 (and RB2).
The logic behind this strategy is pretty simple: Because there are so many RB busts, injuries, and breakouts, it’s better to spend high picks on more dependable players at other positions and fill in your RB spots with sleepers and waiver wire pickups.
Obviously, these players all have something to prove, but are they really that much different than the guys in Tier 3? Dudes like Joe Mixon or Christian McCaffrey – who, admittedly, are in higher tiers on other fantasy sites – could have big years, and someone like Tevin Coleman is an injury away from being a monster. Similarly, if Ameer Abdullah can avoid injury, he could be a stud. We also know that Doug Martin (post suspension) and Frank Gore can be solid RB2s, if not RB1s.
Again, this is why waiting for one of these guys as an RB2 is perfectly acceptable, and there’s a chance you can live with one as an RB1.
- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers 25. Joe Mixon, Bengals 26. Paul Perkins, Giants 27. Tevin Coleman, Falcons 28. Frank Gore, Colts 29. Rob Kelley, Redskins 30. Doug Martin, Buccaneers 31. Jeremy Hill, Bengals 32. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers 33. Ameer Abdullah, Lions
The next tier is pretty similar, but it features a few players who are clearly more valuable in PPR leagues (Danny Woodhead, Theo Riddick, Darren Sproles, James White, C.J. Prosise). It also features mostly “young handcuffs” (Samaje Perine, Derrick Henry) while the last group featured veteran handcuffs (Jeremy Hill, Jonathan Stewart) who have actually proven something and are still listed at the top of their teams’ respective depth charts.
Again, there will likely be at least one guy from this group that will have a big year, be it whoever starts for the Seahawks, a young guy who takes advantage of injury, or someone else. The main problem with this strategy, especially when you dip down to this level for your RB1 or possibly even RB2, is that you could have trouble early in the year before injuries have set in or breakouts have started to happen. A quick 0-2 is never a good way to begin your season, especially when byes have yet to rear their ugly heads. That’s why, even in standard leagues, it’s never a bad idea to get at least one of the PPR specialists. They have defined roles, and you know you’ll at least get something from them in terms of yards.
You could also go the “fill-in” route and overdraft Rodgers/Sims and McFadden if they’re starting in place of Doug Martin and Ezekiel Elliott, respectively. By the time they’re back on the bench, you could easily have found a couple other starters on the waiver wire.
- Danny Woodhead, Ravens 35. Thomas Rawls, Seahawks 36. Terrance West, Ravens 37. Darren McFadden, Cowboys 38. Derrick Henry, Titans 39. Theo Riddick, Lions 40. Eddie Lacy, Seahawks 41. Jacquizz Rodgers, Buccaneers 42. Latavius Murray, Vikings 43. Charles Sims, Buccaneers 44. Samaje Perine, Redskins 45. Adrian Peterson, Saints 46. Darren Sproles, Eagles 47. James White, Patriots 48. C.J. Prosise, Seahawks 49. Duke Johnson Jr., Browns
2017 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
Fantasy Football 2017: Running back sleepers and handcuffs
When you get into Tier 6 and Tier 7, you find a little bit of everything. PPR specialists, veterans, under-the-radar rookies – it’s basically anyone who’s had some buzz in the past or is getting some buzz in the preseason. A few of these guys could move up in the rankings based on how depth charts shake out (Dion Lewis, Matt Forte), but the rest are probably guys you won’t feel comfortable starting in Week 1. These are good mid-to-late-round targets.
- Matt Forte, Jets 51. Dion Lewis, Patriots 52. Jamaal Williams, Packers 53. Shane Vereen, Giants 54. Jamaal Charles, Broncos 55. Matt Breida, 49ers 56. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars
The rest of the list is strictly handcuffs, and it’s tough to predict when they’ll come off the board, as it really depends on who owns the starters and what his or her philosophy on handcuffs is. Some religiously handcuff their RB1; others think it’s a waste of a roster spot.
Not all handcuffs are created equal, especially if there’s a question about who the handcuff really is (Raiders, Cardinals). And this should go without saying, but it’s obviously more important to handcuff a guy behind an injury-prone back. Even someone like Devontae Booker, who’s currently nursing a wrist injury and is third on the Broncos’ depth chart, might have more value than some No. 2’s because he’s behind injury-prone veterans C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles.
No one wants to own three RBs from the same team, so you just have to pick and choose in the final couple rounds. Get one or two of these guys, even if you don’t own the starter, and hope it works out. If you need to drop them in Week 2, go ahead. Most of these guys will be on and off the waiver wire all year. 57. Alfred Morris, Cowboys 58. Alvin Kamara, Saints 59. Chris Thompson, Redskins 60. Jalen Richard, Raiders 61. DeAndre Washington, Raiders 62. Robert Turbin, Colts 63. Alfred Blue, Texans 64. Charcandrick West, Chiefs 65. Chris Ivory, Jaguars 66. Tarik Cohen, Bears 67. Devontae Booker, Broncos 68. D’Onta Foreman, Texans 69. Malcolm Brown, Rams 70. Branden Oliver, Chargers 71. Damien Williams, Dolphins 72. Mike Tolbert, Bills 73. James Conner, Steelers 74. Kerwynn Williams, Cardinals 75. Joe Williams, 49ers
